Who do Democrats want to run in 2028? Plus, Musk skeeves out America
Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
Dreaming of 2028
We’re barely two months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, and pollsters are already eyeing 2028.
A new verified-voter survey from Echelon Insights, a Republican polling firm, asked likely voters whom they would vote for if the 2028 presidential primary were held today. Among Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris comes out on top, with 36% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters saying they’d back her. Coming in behind her is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (10%), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (9%), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (6%), and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (5%), with the 13 other named options coming in under 5%.
Across the aisle, Vice President JD Vance leads the pack with Republican voters, at 39%. After him comes Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (10%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (8%), and failed presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (5%), with 10 other named options pulling in less than 5% support. Of course, all this assumes that Trump’s threat of seeking an unconstitutional third term is all talk. …
It’s no shock that Republican voters want to see Vance succeed Trump—even if the president is wishy-washy on the idea. The same survey finds that most GOP voters (63%) say they’re more loyal to Trump than to the Republican Party, and it’s likely they see Vance as an extension of Trump.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Harris retains a significant group of backers despite being the first Democratic presidential candidate to lose the popular vote since 2004. Her support could easily derive from her being the most well-recognized name in the group since she just ran for president and spent the previous four years as the vice president. (Some of that is also true for Vance.)
But she may be ranked No. 1 because voters see her as a dominating figure (remember her debate performance against Trump?). Shortly after the 2024 election, more Harris voters blamed former President Joe Biden (24%) than they did Harris (6%) for Democrats’ loss that year, according to a YouGov poll for The Economist. And most Harris voters (53%) said they blamed neither and that 2024 was “just a bad year” for Democrats.
Echelon’s new findings track with their mid-November poll, which found similar Democratic support for Harris (41%) to run in 2028. Meanwhile, a December survey from Echelon asked Democrats whether they wanted Harris to continue being “the leading voice for Democrats.” Forty-nine percent said yes, while 36% said they wanted to see someone new.
Trust in air travel dips
Roughly half a dozen deadly airplane crashes have occurred since Trump retook the Oval Office, and it appears to be swaying Americans’ perception of how safe planes are.
A majority of adults (64%) still rate traveling by plane as “somewhat” or “very” safe, according to a new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research—but that’s down 7 percentage points from January 2024.
Independent voters’ confidence in air travel has taken the biggest hit. Sixty-one percent called traveling by plane very or somewhat safe in 2024, but now it’s fallen 18 points, to 43%. It’s a stark difference from the slight decreases seen among Democrats (a 7-point drop) and Republicans (a 1-point drop).
The public’s decreased confidence may be tied to the Trump administration trying to shirk responsibility for the crashes that have happened on its watch. Before January’s plane crash near Washington, D.C., where 67 people were killed, the last major fatal passenger-jet crash occurred in 2009. And Trump and his deeply unqualified Cabinet have tried to blame the crash on everything from former President Joe Biden’s administration to workplace diversity policies.
However, the survey finds that Americans have the most confidence in pilots (84%) and the least in federal government agencies (55%) to maintain air safety.
If you or a loved one have an upcoming flight, these numbers should not be cause for concern. Despite the most recent crashes, experts say commercial flights are still among the safest travel options.
Even the AP-NORC survey showed that Americans still trust planes overall. While adults rated walking (65%) the safest transportation method, planes (64%) and cars (63%) weren’t far behind it, despite that driving is significantly more dangerous.
Little trust for Musk
Poll after poll shows that Americans despise Elon Musk—and perhaps all billionaires—yet his influence within the Trump administration is expanding.
Recently, Trump granted Musk’s advisory commission, known as the Department of Government Efficiency, access to tax data for millions of Americans—and people aren’t comfortable with it. Fifty-four percent of Americans don’t trust Musk with “sensitive government data,” compared to 39% who do trust him with it, according to new YouGov polling.
Distrust of Musk runs deeper as well.
A majority of Americans (51%) don’t trust the mega-billionaire to decide which congressionally approved funds should be rescinded, according to YouGov. The pollster also finds that 57% of Americans are concerned about conflicts of interest stemming from Musk’s involvement with DOGE, though it remains unclear if any exist.
However, all three findings roughly reflect Musk’s favorability rating: 52% unfavorable and 42% favorable, according to YouGov. And since each polling item mentions Musk by name, it’s hard to untangle how much Americans’ perceptions of Musk are influencing their responses to the idea of what he’s doing. Asking Americans whether they support giving sensitive data to “an advisory commission” (without mentioning DOGE or Musk) might fetch higher approval. Or lower. After all, it’s possible that Musk supporters might not back his actions if his name weren’t attached to them.
It is very likely the mega-billionaire and his entourage can access your Social Security number, bank account information, the names and ages of your children, and more, according to Social Security Works, an advocacy group that wants to expand Social Security.
And we know Americans are deeply concerned about how their data is shared. A 2023 study by the Pew Research Center discovered that Americans—and particularly Republicans—are worried about how the government utilizes the data it collects from them.
Assuming those figures remain accurate today, it’s likely that as more people learn just how much access Musk and his youthful followers possess, his favorability will dip further.
Any updates?
Vibe check
Since retaking the White House, Trump’s approval rating has been steady, according to Civiqs: 50% of registered voters disapprove of the job he’s doing as president, while 46% approve, as of Friday.
However, other recent surveys show Trump’s approval on the decline, suggesting his honeymoon period is over. On Thursday, CNN’s Harry Enten noted that four pollsters had Trump’s net approval rating underwater: CNN/SSRS, Gallup, Quinnipiac University, and The Washington Post/Ipsos. In each survey, between 44% to 47% of respondents approved of the job Trump’s doing as president, but a larger percentage disapproved.
There are several plausible causes for the decline, but it seems Americans are concerned with many of Trump’s actions in office—e.g., pardoning those involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection—and are especially perturbed by those spearheaded by Musk.
Andrew Mangan contributed research.
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