Why does Saskatchewan matter in the federal Liberal leadership race?

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In the last two federal elections, Saskatchewan elected a blue wall of Conservative MPs, but for candidates vying to become the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, there are inroads to be made in the Prairie province.

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Liberal leadership hopefuls Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney both visited Saskatchewan in February, each making their case to be party leader. While in Regina, Freeland noted there are approximately 6,000 registered party members to appeal to here (the Liberal Party of Canada did not respond to the Leader-Post’s repeated requests for confirmation of that figure).

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Their votes, spread across 14 ridings, could offer an outsized role in selecting a new party leader compared to other provinces, suggested Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan.

“The result of this system is that Liberal members, or people who registered to vote in the Liberal leadership race, who are living in ridings where there aren’t a lot of other liberal members, are going to have more of an influence over the outcome of the race than those who are living in ridings with lots of Liberal members,” said Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan.

How does voting work?

A communications director from the party explained that leadership voting takes place using a ranked ballot with registered party members ranking their preferred contestant. Each of the 343 ridings in the country is allocated 100 points, which are distributed based on the ratio of votes won by a contestant in each riding.

Westlake said that means some members have, proportionally, more sway in the election of a party leader. It offers an opportunity for the candidates to try and drum up support across the country in places that may not be as amenable to the party, he added.

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“They’ve got to win in more competitive places where there might be more Conservatives, and while I don’t think a lot of ridings in Saskatchewan are going to vote Liberal, this does give candidates an incentive to demonstrate they have broad-based support,” said Westlake.

What candidates are saying

In their stops, both Carney and Freeland emphasized the need for the party to represent a broad base across Canada. Both mentioned their ties to the Prairies and Western Canada given their Alberta ties.

Freeland said regardless of whether there is Prairie representation in the governing party, policy should take into consideration the interests of the region, adding that’s something that she is committed to.

“I very strongly believe it is the job of whoever is in government to represent all of Canada,” said Freeland, who was in Regina on Feb. 14. “A government that shows up for the Prairies, that shows up for the West, that shows up for Saskatchewan, including showing up for rural Saskatchewan.”

As Freeland sees it, the coming federal election will come down to the question of who is best suited to handle trade headwinds and U.S. President Donald Trump amid his threats of tariffs against Canada.

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“I do think the ballot question in the next general election can and must be who can fight for Canada and who can stand up to Trump,” she said.

Similarly, while in Regina on Feb. 11, Carney emphasized the need for a united Canadian economy in the face of Trump, while committing to fight tariffs.

Speaking about the prospect of being prime minister, Carney said: “You serve all Canadians at all times, and in order to do that, it is critical that you are here on the ground, understanding the issues.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign as party leader on Jan. 6, sparking the federal Liberal leadership race, which will conclude on March 9.

The party’s French-language debate occurred Monday, with the English equivalent set to take place Tuesday. In addition to Carney and Freeland, Karina Gould and Frank Baylis are also running to become the next leader of the federal Liberals.

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